Why is so much Stock Talk Trash?

Fakery occurs in all professions, plumbing, cars, lawyers, science, medicine, religion, and even athletics. But what accounts for the high degree of misinformation when in comes to investing? In some ways investment scams are similar to supplement scams that promise renewed vitality and a cure from everything from colds to cancer. Why are both investing and supplements so prone to so much snake oil? Because in both medicine and in investing:


  1. Sometimes is seems to work, even though it often doesn't.
  2. People are biased to believe things that are in their own self-interest.
  3. People like to feel that they have some control over their own destiny.

"It works for me"

Doubtless you've heard the old joke about a cure for the cold, you take two pills and you're better in a week. This goes a good way to explaining why so many people fall for quack remedies: they'll feel better anyway, despite of, or in spite of, the remedy. And when it sometimes fails, they find a reason to discount the failures. Same is true for stocks.

Now suppose you had a million people do the following experiment over a period of a hundred years. You divide them up into three groups.


  1. They have their dogs pick their stocks for them.
  2. They use Sleazy Hot Trades to pick pick their stocks.
  3. They get a reputable financial/stock adviser to do the same.

Which one does better? They'll all do about the same on average. This is a consequence of the efficient market hypothesis. There is a lot of scientific evidence to back this up.

But if you get your dog to do the picking, won't you loose your shirt? On average, you won't. But your dog might pick high risk stocks, so you're much more likely to make a lot more, or lose a lot more than a reputable financial adviser. That's the main value that such a person would add over your dog, and it's definitely a big deal. Sleazy Trades might be even more high risk than your dog, and might also be charging an arm and a leg to use them, so your dog is a better bet.

But because it does sometimes, by chance, work, at least for a short period of time, these examples can be used to justify the merit of the leazy Trading system. Of course your neighbor's dog might also be picking winners a lot too. Maybe it's time for some dog-napping.

"Sleazy trades works because... because something has to"

So why does Sleazy Hot Trades do so well? Because a lot of people don't read the literature and understand the idea of market efficiency. They go with what they hear and want to believe instead.

Slick sales-talk is designed to utilize human weaknesses to make a deal. Most people really love money, and so much so that their judgment can get somewhat impaired when a lot of upside is offered to them. The sales-guy sounds a lot more reasonable when he tells you that he's sure you'll become rich out of his scheme. Even though the customer may be woefully ignorant, it doesn't matter because the sales-guy knows everything, is his friend, and has helped countless others get rich too. Many people are more likely to believe that rather than someone actually telling them the truth, like we're trying to do here.

"Gain control of your own destiny"

When you go to a doctor and they say they have to treat you, you don't know squat, and just get on their treatment-conveyor-belt. You have no control and feel that you are completely at their mercy. No one likes this. People want to be able to decide their own fate and have a say in what procedures and drugs are given to them. Unfortunately this often leads to alternatives that are not to a patient's benefit and can easily fall victim to quacks.

It's even worse with investing. You're told that before you make a lot of money, you have to become a skilled trader along the lines of the phony schemes that they have cooked up. People love this because this presents a challenge that they're confident they can surmount. If they go to a financial adviser, there isn't much of a challenge there. But sitting in front of a computer, learning to use some idiotic software, with the belief that they're gaining some financial prowess is a very attractive idea.

It's like a video game where you get paid to play. And you can tell yourself and your friends that you gained your financial independence through your wn skill, and by not following the beaten path but instead trusting your own instincts.

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